Blog: Almanac Trader

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S&P 500 Up 5 of Last 8 Fed Rate Hike Announcement Days

□ Mar 21 2023 □ Published at Almanac Trader under tags $fed $^gspc $spy $voo

In the chart above the 30 trading days before and after the last 119 Fed meetings (back to March 2008) are graphed. There are four lines, “All,” “Up,” “Down,” and “Rate Hike Days.” Up means the...

March Seasonality Prevails, Banking Fiasco Be Damned

□ Mar 20 2023 □ Published at Almanac Trader

It’s encouraging typical March seasonal patterns have overcome recent bank failures, recession talk and fearmongering. The early March pullback was steeper than normal, but the usual mid-month...

Stocks Up 22 of Last 29 St. Patrick’s Days Even Luckier Thursday Before

□ Mar 15 2023 □ Published at Almanac Trader

Céad Míle Fáilte! The market could sure use a wee bit o’ the luck o’ the Irish this week. Saint Patrick’s Day is the only cultural event that perennially lands in March. Since 1950, the S&P...

Ides of March Inflection Point: Beware!

□ Mar 14 2023 □ Published at Almanac Trader

Markets are fixated on fallout and contagion from regional bank failures on the eve of the Ides of March. It may have been a dire warning for a triumphant Julius Caesar. But, traders should beware...

March Triple Witching Week Market Signal

□ Mar 13 2023 □ Published at Almanac Trader

Bank shutdowns last week. Feds backstop SVB today. Market performance this week could be a big tell. Triple Witching Weeks have tended to be down in flat periods and dramatically so during bear...

March Jobs Report: Inflation Concerns Could Derail A Historically Bullish Day

□ Mar 09 2023 □ Published at Almanac Trader under tags $dia $^dji $^gspc $iwm $^ixic

Yesterday’s ADP private payroll report was stronger than anticipated with 242k new jobs being added versus expectations for around 200k. In less unusual times, strong employment data would...

Giving Up the Bear Market for Lent

□ Mar 07 2023 □ Published at Almanac Trader

Join Me LIVE Today During MoneyShow’s Virtual Expo!...

Small Cap Seasonal Strength Ending

□ Mar 06 2023 □ Published at Almanac Trader

There has been much ado about the recent outperformance of small caps versus large caps – it has been impressive and welcomed. When small caps do well it’s a good sign. Many are U.S. based and not...

End of Q1 Impacts March Trading

□ Mar 03 2023 □ Published at Almanac Trader

Julius Caesar failed to heed the famous warning to “beware the Ides of March” but investors have been served well when they have. Stock prices have had a propensity to decline, sometimes rather...

March 2023 Almanac: Even Better In Pre-Election Years

□ Mar 02 2023 □ Published at Almanac Trader

As part of the Best Six/Eight Months, March has historically been a solid performing month with DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russell 1000 & 2000 all advancing more than 63% of the time with...

First Trading Day of March – S&P 500 Up 69.6% of Time

□ Feb 28 2023 □ Published at Almanac Trader under tags $dia $^dji $^gspc $^ixic $qqq

First trading days of months have a bullish reputation and March is not an exception. Reviewing the last 23 years of data reveals S&P 500 has the best record, advancing 69.6% of the time with...

DJIA and S&P 500 Down 10 of Last 11 on February’s Last Day

□ Feb 27 2023 □ Published at Almanac Trader under tags $dia $^dji $^gspc $^ixic $qqq

Before the market can close the books on another tepid February, it still must contend with its historically weak last trading day. Since 1996, S&P 500 has declined 20 times in 27 years...

Interest Rate & Recession Fears Suppress Pre-Election Year Bullishness in February

□ Feb 21 2023 □ Published at Almanac Trader under tags $dia $^dji $^gspc $iwm $^ixic

February’s strong start was not able to overcome concerns of additional interest rate hikes, recession or generally tepid corporate earnings and guidance. As of today’s close, all market gains in...

Week After February Monthly Option Expiration NASDAQ Best, Up 8 of Last 11

□ Feb 20 2023 □ Published at Almanac Trader under tags $dia $^dji $^gspc $iwm $^ixic

February has historically been a challenging month for the market and frequently the weakness has arrived late in the month notably in the week after monthly options expiration. Since 1990, only...

Up 7 of Last 11 After Presidents’ Day But Still Weak Long Term

□ Feb 17 2023 □ Published at Almanac Trader

DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ are all up 7 of the last 11 years on the day after the Presidents’ Day market holiday with average changes ranging from -0.12% for DJIA to 0.24% for NASDAQ....

Be My Guest in New York City with a Special President's Day Discount!

□ Feb 15 2023 □ Published at Almanac Trader

I’m incredibly excited about an upcoming opportunity for you and I to meet personally, talk investing strategies, and answer any in-depth questions you might have (not to mention I can save you...

DJIA and S&P 500 Up 10 of Last 12 Days Before Presidents’ Day Weekend

□ Feb 14 2023 □ Published at Almanac Trader under tags $dia $^dji $^gspc $^ixic $qqq

Trading before Presidents’ Day Weekend used to be horrible. However, there has been a big improvement over the last 12 years. The longer-term track record of the market’s performance ahead of...

February Monthly Options Expiration Week: DJIA, S&P 500 & NASDAQ Up 12 of Last 17

□ Feb 10 2023 □ Published at Almanac Trader under tags $dia $^dji $^gspc $iwm $^ixic

February’s monthly option expiration week has had a bullish tilt over the past 33 years. Weekly average gains fall in a range of 0.20% from NASDAQ to 0.49% by Russell 2000. Based upon average...

Free Webinar: Bullish January Trifecta Boosts 2023 Annual Forecast

□ Feb 08 2023 □ Published at Almanac Trader under tags $^gspc $spy january indicator trifecta pre-election year

Please take a moment and register for my free webinar, Bullish January Trifecta Boosts 2023 Annual Forecast on Wednesday February 15, 2022, at 2:00 PM EDT here:...

Small-Cap Outperformance Continues in February

□ Feb 06 2023 □ Published at Almanac Trader under tags $dia $^dji $^gspc $iwm $^ixic

Over the last 33 years the week before February’s monthly options expiration week has had its share of ups and downs. It was up 8 of 9 years across the board from 1990-1998. From 1999 to 2009 the...

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